INVESTMENT RESEARCH NOTE Miner-Operating-System (MOS) Landscape – 2025

1. Executive Summary

The aftermarket firmware (“MOS”) layer that sits between ASIC hardware and mining-pool software has matured into a strategic lever for both efficiency and competitive differentiation.

• Adoption: ~56 % of global SHA-256 hashrate now runs some form of non-OEM firmware. Vnish leads third-party solutions with 26.4 % share, while stock/OEM firmware has fallen to 44.4 %.
• Growth Drivers: Post-2024 halving economics, energy-price volatility, and the need for fleet-scale automation continue to push miners toward open, tunable stacks.
• Open-source Inflection: Tether’s decision to open-source its own Mining OS (“MOS”) by Q4-2025 further legitimises the model and may commoditise closed-source maintenance fees

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2. Development History in Brief

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3. Market Landscape (2025E)

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Hardware context: Bitmain still commands ≈75 % of ASIC shipments, followed by MicroBT 18 % and Canaan 7 %. The firmware market is therefore the main competitive layer that remains fragmentable.

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4. Miner Demand – Why Firmware Matters

a. Efficiency & Margin Protection

• Chip-level autotuning yields 8-20 % J/TH improvement versus stock settings; critical after the April-2024 subsidy halving.
• Ability to undervolt during high-power-price hours and overclock when hash-price spikes adds real-time optionality.

b. Fleet Automation

• APIs for cluster-wide image flashing, power-curtail scripts, and Stratum V2 block-template negotiation reduce OPEX and pool-level censorship risk.

c. Security & Auditability

• Open firmware removes fears of hidden dev-fee or OEM “kill-switches” (cf. Antbleed 2017).
• Built-in malware scans neutralise common miner-botnets that hijack hashrate.

d. Asset Longevity

• Thermal-aware tuning extends hash-board lifespan, delaying capex refresh cycles. Cambridge data show 86.9 % of rigs resold or repurposed rather than scrapped.

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5. Open-Source Impact & Tether’s Entry

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6. Investment Implications

a.Firmware Providers:

• Pricing compression risk but TAM expanding; firms with adjacent revenue (pools, brokerage, derivatives) like Luxor are better insulated.
• Vnish’s large share yet closed code may face pressure if Tether/Braiins push fully open alternatives.

b.  ASIC Manufacturers:

• Lock-down strategies (signed images) risk alienating customers; collaborating with open-source stacks or shipping “performance” official images could preserve demand premium.
• Modular control-boards (e.g., Marathon UCB 2100) hint at disintermediation of OEM boards altogether.

c.Mining Operators:

• Economics increasingly hinge on software sophistication equal to energy procurement; allocating R&D or partnering with firmware vendors is now part of core strategy.
• Regulatory narratives around energy use strengthen if miners can prove higher J/TH via open firmware.

d.Capital Markets:

• Public miners advertising proprietary firmware (MARA, CLSK, RIOT) may warrant valuation premiums for intellectual property and margin defensibility.
• Investors should scrutinise whether dev-fee or subscription revenue is counted as operating income or contra-cost.

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7. Key Risks

• Security Vulnerabilities: Open code bases invite scrutiny but also public exploits; rigorous code-signing and CI audits essential.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: Open-source algorithms could be mislabelled “export-controlled” in certain jurisdictions.
• OEM Push-back: Firmware locks may escalate, increasing cap-ex for replacement control-boards.

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8. Conclusion

The MOS layer has evolved from a hobbyist hack into a critical profit centre and decentralisation vector. As open-source initiatives—now backed by heavyweight players like Tether—gain momentum, the competitive moat will shift from closed autotuners to ecosystem reach, data analytics, and energy-grid integration services.

Bottom line: Investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin mining should evaluate fleet operators and service providers through the lens of software leverage and open-source alignment, not merely hardware scale. The next efficiency S-curve will be written in code.

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Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. For reproduction or reprint requests, please contact hello@xbank-labs.com.